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🌿 Sustainable Finance — India Transition

Original research on India's green bond markets, ESG frameworks, climate risk modeling, SEBI/RBI policy analysis, transition finance for hard-to-abate sectors, and a commercial strategy engine for sustainable finance practitioners.

Python CI License: MIT Status Market

Bridging SEBI/RBI regulatory intent, Indian capital market structure, and climate-aligned capital allocation — with data, original frameworks, quantitative models, and a bank strategy engine.

📗 Green Bonds · 📊 ESG · 🌡️ Climate Risk · 🏛️ Policy · ⚙️ Transition Finance · 🏦 Commercial Layer · 🚀 Run It


✦ What Makes This Different

Principle How It's Applied
Verified-only bank claims All bank positioning sourced exclusively from official public materials — annual reports, sustainability frameworks, press releases. Unverified gaps explicitly marked not verified.
Single-command reproducibility python build.py regenerates all reports, figures, and appendix tables from source data — no manual steps.
Rule-based transparency Product recommendations use explicit, explainable scoring criteria. Every weight is inspectable in src/taxonomy.py and config/priority_weights.yaml.
CI-enforced integrity GitHub Actions runs tests and rebuilds outputs on every push and pull request.
Illustrative scenarios, clearly labelled Scenario numbers are financing anchors, not forecasts.

⚡ Scope at a Glance

Domain Coverage Key Output
🟢 Green Bonds Sovereign, corporate & PSU issuance · 2015–present Spread attribution vs. vanilla bonds; valuation model
📊 ESG Integration Nifty 50 + selected mid-cap universe Weighted scoring model; sector benchmarks; data gap analysis
🌡️ Climate Risk Agriculture, power, infra, auto, cement Portfolio Climate VaR; transition scenario stress tests
🏛️ SEBI / RBI Policy BRSR, green deposit frameworks, RBI circulars Policy timeline; implementation gap analysis
⚙️ Transition Finance Cement, steel, coal power Decarbonization capex DCF; SLB/transition bond structuring
🏦 Commercial Layer 9 India subsectors × 4 lifecycle stages Deal economics, sector rankings, bank strategy plays

📗 Green Bond Markets

Analysis of India's green bond ecosystem — issuance trends, pricing mechanics, and credit spread attribution across sovereign, PSU, and corporate issuers.

  • Green bond issuance history by year, sector, and issuer type (SEBI registry data)
  • Spread attribution vs. duration-matched vanilla bonds — liquidity, coupon, and greenium effects
  • Eligibility framework mapping (SEBI green bond guidelines + external review process)
  • Investor participation breakdown: FIIs, domestic institutions, retail

Key Finding: Green bonds trade tighter than vanilla bonds on a duration-adjusted basis, signalling institutional appetite — but end-use verification and impact measurement remain structurally weak.


📊 ESG Data & Integration

Original frameworks for ESG integration in Indian equity and debt markets, addressing the data gaps specific to emerging market universes.

  • ESG data coverage analysis: mid/small-cap universe <40% disclosed
  • Sector-specific metrics: thermal coal exposure, water stress in manufacturing, governance flags
  • Weighted ESG scoring model for Nifty 50 constituents
  • Fixed income ESG overlay: credit spread attribution to ESG factor quartiles

Key Finding: No significant correlation between ESG score and returns in Indian equities yet — but sector bifurcation is pronounced: IT/pharma vs. metals/mining show a 70+ percentile gap on environmental scores.


🌡️ Climate Risk Modeling

Quantitative stress testing for physical and transition climate risks across Indian capital markets.

  • Climate risk taxonomy: physical (rainfall, flooding, heat stress) vs. transition (carbon pricing, tech disruption)
  • Portfolio Climate VaR under 1.5°C, 2°C, and delayed-transition scenarios
  • India-specific scenario design: net-zero 2070 pathway, sectoral emissions caps

Key Finding: Under a 2°C transition scenario (carbon price ₹5,000/tonne by 2030), energy and materials sectors face 15–25% earnings headwinds.


🏛️ SEBI & RBI Policy

Timeline, implementation mechanics, and gap analysis of India's sustainable finance regulatory architecture.

  • SEBI BRSR Core — mandatory for top 150 by market cap; third-party assured; vs. broader BRSR
  • RBI Climate Risk Circular — principles-based guidance; enforcement timeline uncertainty
  • Green deposit frameworks and ESG lending guidelines
  • International alignment: TCFD, EU Taxonomy comparisons

Key Finding: SEBI's BRSR rollout is structurally comprehensive but enforcement is nascent. RBI guidance is principles-based, not rules-based — creating compliance ambiguity for regulated entities.


⚙️ Transition Finance

Structuring frameworks and financial models for decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors in India.

  • Cement — fuel switching, clinker substitution, CCS readiness
  • Steel — scrap-based EAF, hydrogen DRI transition economics
  • Coal Power — plant retirement sequencing, refinancing gap modelling
  • Capex requirement models, IRR sensitivity to carbon price

Key Finding: Cement sector decarbonisation cost is ₹8–12 per unit — viable within margin structure if carbon price exceeds ₹3,000/tonne.


🏦 Commercial Strategy Layer

A bank strategy engine that maps financing opportunities across 9 India subsectors and 4 lifecycle stages.

What It Includes

Module Description
src/deal_economics.py Deal archetypes, annual volume, fee pool per subsector
src/sector_priority.py Composite scoring model with configurable weights
src/lifecycle.py Primary + secondary product per subsector × stage
src/bank_strategy.py Capability-to-opportunity mapping; Lead/Co/Build plays
src/commercial_report.py Where the Money Is — full strategy report

Instrument Taxonomy (9 Categories)

  • Green project finance and corporate green loans
  • Green bonds and green securitisation
  • Sustainability-linked loans, RCFs, and bonds
  • Transition finance loans and transition bond variants
  • Warehouse and aggregation facilities
  • Guarantees and partial risk-sharing facilities
  • Blended finance and carbon-linked structures
  • Advisory-led green / transition capital-markets mandates

Bank Positioning

Bank Public Positioning Source Basis
Standard Chartered EM-focused sustainable finance; explicit India transition strategy Annual report, sustainability framework, India pages
Deutsche Bank European anchor with growing EM transition coverage; ESG advisory depth Sustainability report, product framework pages
UBS Wealth-led sustainable investing; institutional green bond distribution Annual report, sustainability report, press releases

All claims anchored to data/bank_source_ledger.csv. Unverified gaps labelled explicitly — never inferred.


🗂️ Repository Structure

sustainable-finance-india-transition/
│
├── 📁 .github/workflows/ci.yml          # GitHub Actions — test + rebuild on push
├── 📄 build.py                           # Single-command pipeline: reports + figures + CSVs
├── 📄 requirements.txt
├── 📁 config/
│   └── priority_weights.yaml             # Tunable sector scoring weights
├── 📁 data/
│   ├── green_bonds/                       # Issuance history, pricing spreads
│   ├── esg_scores/                        # Nifty 50 ESG metrics
│   ├── climate_scenarios/                 # Net-zero 2070 parameters
│   ├── deal_economics.csv                 # Commercial layer deal archetypes
│   ├── sector_capital_needs.csv           # Annual capital need by subsector
│   ├── bank_capabilities_template.csv     # Customisable bank profile
│   └── bank_source_ledger.csv             # Verified source references
├── 📁 src/
│   ├── taxonomy.py / scenarios.py / reporting.py   # Research layer
│   ├── portfolio_climate_var.py                     # Climate stress test
│   ├── sector_decarbonization_dcf.py                # Capex & IRR model
│   ├── esg_credit_spread_model.py                   # ESG spread attribution
│   ├── constants.py / deal_economics.py             # Commercial layer
│   ├── sector_priority.py / lifecycle.py            # Commercial layer
│   ├── bank_strategy.py / commercial_report.py      # Commercial layer
│   └── figures.py                                   # All chart generation
├── 📁 notebooks/                          # Jupyter demo workflows
├── 📁 reports/                            # Auto-generated outputs
└── 📁 tests/                              # pytest test suite

🚀 Quick Start

git clone https://github.com/DogInfantry/sustainable-finance-india-transition.git
cd sustainable-finance-india-transition
pip install -r requirements.txt
# Research layer
from src.portfolio_climate_var import PortfolioClimateStress
results = PortfolioClimateStress(holdings, esg_ratings).stress_test(scenario='transition_2030')

from src.sector_decarbonization_dcf import SectorDCF
npv = SectorDCF(sector='cement', technology='clinker_substitution').run_valuation(capex_year=2025, carbon_price=5000)
# Commercial layer — regenerate all strategy outputs
python build.py

# Use your own bank profile
python build.py --bank-profile data/my_bank_capabilities.csv

# Run tests
pytest

🗃️ Data Sources

Dataset Source Coverage
Green bond issuance SEBI, BSE, NSE 2015–present
ESG scores MSCI, Bloomberg, company BRSR filings Nifty 50 + selected mid-cap
Climate scenarios IEA, NITI Aayog, World Bank India-specific pathways
Policy documents SEBI, RBI, MoEFCC Latest circulars
Emissions data CRISIL, company disclosures Hard-to-abate sectors

🤝 Contributing

See CONTRIBUTING.md for setup instructions, branch naming convention, PR checklist, and data standards.

Quick labels to look for: good first issue, data-gap, model-improvement.


⚠️ Limitations

  • ESG data quality — relies on company self-disclosure; cross-provider inconsistency is common
  • Scenario uncertainty — climate pathways carry deep uncertainty; outputs are illustrative
  • Model sensitivity — transition finance models are highly sensitive to capex profiles and carbon price assumptions
  • Deal economics — all figures are illustrative estimates for strategic analysis; not market forecasts
  • Not investment advice. Not affiliated with Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, UBS, or any other institution.

🔗 Related Repositories

Repository Focus
capital-markets-intelligence IPO event studies, M&A screening, sovereign risk index, yield curve decomposition
investment-risk-management-console Real-time Nifty 50 risk dashboard, stress testing, sector attribution
critical-minerals-green-steel India minerals policy, green steel industrial transition

📜 License

MIT License — see LICENSE. Attribution appreciated.


Last Updated: April 2026  ·  Status: 🟢 Active  ·  Market Focus: India

Verified sources · Single-command reproducibility · Built for sustainable finance practitioners

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Research on India's sustainable finance transition - green bonds, ESG integration, SEBI/RBI policy frameworks, climate risk in Indian capital markets, and transition finance for hard-to-abate sectors. Data · Original Frameworks · Models.

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