Original research on India's green bond markets, ESG frameworks, climate risk modeling, SEBI/RBI policy analysis, transition finance for hard-to-abate sectors, and a commercial strategy engine for sustainable finance practitioners.
Bridging SEBI/RBI regulatory intent, Indian capital market structure, and climate-aligned capital allocation — with data, original frameworks, quantitative models, and a bank strategy engine.
📗 Green Bonds · 📊 ESG · 🌡️ Climate Risk · 🏛️ Policy · ⚙️ Transition Finance · 🏦 Commercial Layer · 🚀 Run It
| Principle | How It's Applied |
|---|---|
| Verified-only bank claims | All bank positioning sourced exclusively from official public materials — annual reports, sustainability frameworks, press releases. Unverified gaps explicitly marked not verified. |
| Single-command reproducibility | python build.py regenerates all reports, figures, and appendix tables from source data — no manual steps. |
| Rule-based transparency | Product recommendations use explicit, explainable scoring criteria. Every weight is inspectable in src/taxonomy.py and config/priority_weights.yaml. |
| CI-enforced integrity | GitHub Actions runs tests and rebuilds outputs on every push and pull request. |
| Illustrative scenarios, clearly labelled | Scenario numbers are financing anchors, not forecasts. |
| Domain | Coverage | Key Output |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Green Bonds | Sovereign, corporate & PSU issuance · 2015–present | Spread attribution vs. vanilla bonds; valuation model |
| 📊 ESG Integration | Nifty 50 + selected mid-cap universe | Weighted scoring model; sector benchmarks; data gap analysis |
| 🌡️ Climate Risk | Agriculture, power, infra, auto, cement | Portfolio Climate VaR; transition scenario stress tests |
| 🏛️ SEBI / RBI Policy | BRSR, green deposit frameworks, RBI circulars | Policy timeline; implementation gap analysis |
| ⚙️ Transition Finance | Cement, steel, coal power | Decarbonization capex DCF; SLB/transition bond structuring |
| 🏦 Commercial Layer | 9 India subsectors × 4 lifecycle stages | Deal economics, sector rankings, bank strategy plays |
Analysis of India's green bond ecosystem — issuance trends, pricing mechanics, and credit spread attribution across sovereign, PSU, and corporate issuers.
- Green bond issuance history by year, sector, and issuer type (SEBI registry data)
- Spread attribution vs. duration-matched vanilla bonds — liquidity, coupon, and greenium effects
- Eligibility framework mapping (SEBI green bond guidelines + external review process)
- Investor participation breakdown: FIIs, domestic institutions, retail
Key Finding: Green bonds trade tighter than vanilla bonds on a duration-adjusted basis, signalling institutional appetite — but end-use verification and impact measurement remain structurally weak.
Original frameworks for ESG integration in Indian equity and debt markets, addressing the data gaps specific to emerging market universes.
- ESG data coverage analysis: mid/small-cap universe <40% disclosed
- Sector-specific metrics: thermal coal exposure, water stress in manufacturing, governance flags
- Weighted ESG scoring model for Nifty 50 constituents
- Fixed income ESG overlay: credit spread attribution to ESG factor quartiles
Key Finding: No significant correlation between ESG score and returns in Indian equities yet — but sector bifurcation is pronounced: IT/pharma vs. metals/mining show a 70+ percentile gap on environmental scores.
Quantitative stress testing for physical and transition climate risks across Indian capital markets.
- Climate risk taxonomy: physical (rainfall, flooding, heat stress) vs. transition (carbon pricing, tech disruption)
- Portfolio Climate VaR under 1.5°C, 2°C, and delayed-transition scenarios
- India-specific scenario design: net-zero 2070 pathway, sectoral emissions caps
Key Finding: Under a 2°C transition scenario (carbon price ₹5,000/tonne by 2030), energy and materials sectors face 15–25% earnings headwinds.
Timeline, implementation mechanics, and gap analysis of India's sustainable finance regulatory architecture.
- SEBI BRSR Core — mandatory for top 150 by market cap; third-party assured; vs. broader BRSR
- RBI Climate Risk Circular — principles-based guidance; enforcement timeline uncertainty
- Green deposit frameworks and ESG lending guidelines
- International alignment: TCFD, EU Taxonomy comparisons
Key Finding: SEBI's BRSR rollout is structurally comprehensive but enforcement is nascent. RBI guidance is principles-based, not rules-based — creating compliance ambiguity for regulated entities.
Structuring frameworks and financial models for decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors in India.
- Cement — fuel switching, clinker substitution, CCS readiness
- Steel — scrap-based EAF, hydrogen DRI transition economics
- Coal Power — plant retirement sequencing, refinancing gap modelling
- Capex requirement models, IRR sensitivity to carbon price
Key Finding: Cement sector decarbonisation cost is ₹8–12 per unit — viable within margin structure if carbon price exceeds ₹3,000/tonne.
A bank strategy engine that maps financing opportunities across 9 India subsectors and 4 lifecycle stages.
| Module | Description |
|---|---|
src/deal_economics.py |
Deal archetypes, annual volume, fee pool per subsector |
src/sector_priority.py |
Composite scoring model with configurable weights |
src/lifecycle.py |
Primary + secondary product per subsector × stage |
src/bank_strategy.py |
Capability-to-opportunity mapping; Lead/Co/Build plays |
src/commercial_report.py |
Where the Money Is — full strategy report |
- Green project finance and corporate green loans
- Green bonds and green securitisation
- Sustainability-linked loans, RCFs, and bonds
- Transition finance loans and transition bond variants
- Warehouse and aggregation facilities
- Guarantees and partial risk-sharing facilities
- Blended finance and carbon-linked structures
- Advisory-led green / transition capital-markets mandates
| Bank | Public Positioning | Source Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | EM-focused sustainable finance; explicit India transition strategy | Annual report, sustainability framework, India pages |
| Deutsche Bank | European anchor with growing EM transition coverage; ESG advisory depth | Sustainability report, product framework pages |
| UBS | Wealth-led sustainable investing; institutional green bond distribution | Annual report, sustainability report, press releases |
All claims anchored to
data/bank_source_ledger.csv. Unverified gaps labelled explicitly — never inferred.
sustainable-finance-india-transition/
│
├── 📁 .github/workflows/ci.yml # GitHub Actions — test + rebuild on push
├── 📄 build.py # Single-command pipeline: reports + figures + CSVs
├── 📄 requirements.txt
├── 📁 config/
│ └── priority_weights.yaml # Tunable sector scoring weights
├── 📁 data/
│ ├── green_bonds/ # Issuance history, pricing spreads
│ ├── esg_scores/ # Nifty 50 ESG metrics
│ ├── climate_scenarios/ # Net-zero 2070 parameters
│ ├── deal_economics.csv # Commercial layer deal archetypes
│ ├── sector_capital_needs.csv # Annual capital need by subsector
│ ├── bank_capabilities_template.csv # Customisable bank profile
│ └── bank_source_ledger.csv # Verified source references
├── 📁 src/
│ ├── taxonomy.py / scenarios.py / reporting.py # Research layer
│ ├── portfolio_climate_var.py # Climate stress test
│ ├── sector_decarbonization_dcf.py # Capex & IRR model
│ ├── esg_credit_spread_model.py # ESG spread attribution
│ ├── constants.py / deal_economics.py # Commercial layer
│ ├── sector_priority.py / lifecycle.py # Commercial layer
│ ├── bank_strategy.py / commercial_report.py # Commercial layer
│ └── figures.py # All chart generation
├── 📁 notebooks/ # Jupyter demo workflows
├── 📁 reports/ # Auto-generated outputs
└── 📁 tests/ # pytest test suite
git clone https://github.com/DogInfantry/sustainable-finance-india-transition.git
cd sustainable-finance-india-transition
pip install -r requirements.txt# Research layer
from src.portfolio_climate_var import PortfolioClimateStress
results = PortfolioClimateStress(holdings, esg_ratings).stress_test(scenario='transition_2030')
from src.sector_decarbonization_dcf import SectorDCF
npv = SectorDCF(sector='cement', technology='clinker_substitution').run_valuation(capex_year=2025, carbon_price=5000)# Commercial layer — regenerate all strategy outputs
python build.py
# Use your own bank profile
python build.py --bank-profile data/my_bank_capabilities.csv
# Run tests
pytest| Dataset | Source | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Green bond issuance | SEBI, BSE, NSE | 2015–present |
| ESG scores | MSCI, Bloomberg, company BRSR filings | Nifty 50 + selected mid-cap |
| Climate scenarios | IEA, NITI Aayog, World Bank | India-specific pathways |
| Policy documents | SEBI, RBI, MoEFCC | Latest circulars |
| Emissions data | CRISIL, company disclosures | Hard-to-abate sectors |
See CONTRIBUTING.md for setup instructions, branch naming convention, PR checklist, and data standards.
Quick labels to look for: good first issue, data-gap, model-improvement.
- ESG data quality — relies on company self-disclosure; cross-provider inconsistency is common
- Scenario uncertainty — climate pathways carry deep uncertainty; outputs are illustrative
- Model sensitivity — transition finance models are highly sensitive to capex profiles and carbon price assumptions
- Deal economics — all figures are illustrative estimates for strategic analysis; not market forecasts
- Not investment advice. Not affiliated with Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, UBS, or any other institution.
| Repository | Focus |
|---|---|
| capital-markets-intelligence | IPO event studies, M&A screening, sovereign risk index, yield curve decomposition |
| investment-risk-management-console | Real-time Nifty 50 risk dashboard, stress testing, sector attribution |
| critical-minerals-green-steel | India minerals policy, green steel industrial transition |
MIT License — see LICENSE. Attribution appreciated.
Last Updated: April 2026 · Status: 🟢 Active · Market Focus: India
Verified sources · Single-command reproducibility · Built for sustainable finance practitioners