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Question Library

This library provides representative analyst questions organized by scenario family. These questions are prompts for structured historical analogue analysis, not requests for forecasts, probabilities, expected returns, or investment advice.

Technology Competition

  1. What happened when export controls expanded?
  2. Which sectors were most affected by advanced technology restrictions?
  3. What historical analogues exist for AI chip export controls?
  4. How did semiconductor equipment restrictions compare with chip restrictions?
  5. Which named firms appeared directly exposed in prior technology-control events?
  6. What market evidence exists for sector proxies after technology restrictions?
  7. How did entity-list actions differ from broad export-control rules?
  8. What pathway patterns followed advanced-computing restrictions?

Industrial Policy

  1. How have subsidy programs affected markets historically?
  2. What analogues exist for semiconductor industrial-policy legislation?
  3. Which events involved direct state support to named firms?
  4. How did broad industrial-policy announcements compare with firm-specific awards?
  5. What market evidence exists after strategic fab support announcements?
  6. Which historical events show state-support and supply-chain relocation together?
  7. How should analysts interpret highly anticipated subsidy announcements?
  8. What caveats should be attached to industrial-policy analogues?

Economic Security

  1. How have investment restrictions changed investor behavior historically?
  2. What analogues exist for outbound investment screening?
  3. Which sectors were exposed to national-security investment review?
  4. How do procurement restrictions compare with entity-list actions?
  5. What market evidence exists after named-company procurement restrictions?
  6. How should analysts frame economic security controls without forecasting?
  7. Which historical events show retaliation through procurement or access restrictions?
  8. What caveats matter when policy frameworks precede final rules?

Resource Competition

  1. What happened after critical-mineral restrictions?
  2. Which sectors were exposed to gallium and germanium controls?
  3. How do critical-mineral controls compare with semiconductor export controls?
  4. What market proxies are appropriate for minerals exposure?
  5. Which historical events involved strategic input restrictions?
  6. How should analysts handle imperfect commodity or materials proxies?
  7. What pathway patterns follow input-security events?
  8. What evidence gaps matter most in resource-competition scenarios?

Supply Chain Risk

  1. What patterns emerge following major supply-chain disruptions?
  2. Which analogues show supply-chain relocation?
  3. How have state-backed fab relocation events affected market proxies historically?
  4. What historical events show friend-shoring or strategic capacity shifts?
  5. How should analysts distinguish direct beneficiaries from substitute beneficiaries?
  6. Which sectors are most relevant to semiconductor supply-chain risk?
  7. What market evidence exists for foundry relocation announcements?
  8. What caveats apply when supply-chain exposure is indirect?

Strategic Competition

  1. Which historical analogues best match a US-China strategic competition scenario?
  2. Is the current scenario closer to restriction, support, retaliation, or supply-chain relocation?
  3. What market evidence exists across prior US-China technology policy events?
  4. How should Taiwan-related tension be treated within broader strategic competition?
  5. Which events combined technology controls and geopolitical signaling?
  6. What observed pathways appear after retaliation events?
  7. How should analysts compare policy similarity and sector exposure?
  8. What executive memo caveats should be included for broad strategic-competition scenarios?

Cross-Cutting Analyst Questions

  1. What historical analogues have the strongest structural similarity to this question?
  2. Which retrieved analogues have observed market evidence?
  3. Which analogues lack return records or have weak proxy mapping?
  4. Which pathway is most consistently observed across similar events?
  5. What is known from historical evidence, and what remains outside the dataset?
  6. How should unsupported parts of the question be reframed?
  7. What data gaps should be disclosed before committee review?
  8. Which scenario family best organizes this analyst question?